Man, you are sure in a good mood today - weather got you down?

Personally I feel that agriculture in the US is going in two directions at the same time -

One direction is large scale, highly efficient farms producing grains for the large scale users and export. high quality, high volume grain at relatively low cost of production.

However at the same time I see a move to more smaller scale local specialized production for niche markets.

I think USDA census data confirms these two trends going on at the same time. 

What is getting squeezed is the middle sized operations. The midsized farm cannot compete with the efficiency of the larger operations in cost of production of commodity crops and is not really prepared to look at other markets. This is probably what has you concerned this evening.

Like it or not, agriculture appears to be going in this two pronged, large and small approach. This appears to be somewhat inevitable if folks continue to use the conventional paradigms of how to raise crops and livestock.

I do see ways the midsize operation can prosper with newer methods and different paradigms of operation but many are not willing or able to look "outside the box".  The midsize operation just cannot compete if it insists on using the same game rules as the large, highly capitalized operations. There are however other possibililties.

But you can see by the negative responses I get to many of my postings that many folks just are not willing to consider other paradigms for raising crops and livestock.

While you are seeing a discouraging future for agriculture, I think this is a very exciting time for agriculture.

We are working on many different products that are really size neutral - that are as useful for the small grower as they are for the mega acre operation. An effective strip till system that only uses 10-12 hp per row and works best at 6-8 mph. Planter and fertilizer systems that CAN operate through lots of  residue. And even the smaller operation can take advantage of technology such as RTK.

This leads to the ability to grow a crop such as corn with 1/3 less P & K and often 0.7 units of N per bu (with split, banded application) rather than 1 - 1.2 units N per bu commonly used in conventional systems.  All the residue becomes an asset holding in moisture and holding down weeds rather than a liability which needs huge tractors and lots of diesel fuel to be plowed under.  Why work and fertilize the whoile field to the same level when we know within inches where each seed will be next spring??

Thinking of our farms as a series of flower pots, each with a corn plant in them brings a whole different set of possibilities.  And in cattle, rotational grazing as Ben has shown here on a large scale and I do on a smaller scale, adding finishing by grazing my standing strip tilled corn on corn, offers different paradigms in the cattle business also that can help both the large and smaller operator.  Some folks would do the "ROFLMAO" if I told you what my target stocking rate is....which drastically reduces the cost of production etc....

So I am about 180 degrees out of your pessimistic mindset. I know it is especially hard with the very unseasonable weather we are having right now in many areas (cold and wet or hot and dry) but I feel we are very fortunate to be in agriculture at an exciting time.

I am also however about to run out of hay and the grass is not growing....

jmho.

Jim at Dawn