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SE IL | I stopped reading when you said trend is flattening because yields the last couple years have been below. Trend yield is not a prediction, it’s a formula for the yield if everywhere has normal conditions. Also your wrong on what trend yield was: it was 179 I believe for 2023 but USDA always starts out predicting above trend by a couple bushels (hints the 181 don’t ask why). Want proof? Go back and read all the peak corn post around the 2012-2013 time. Most of these same arguments were made then. Then after 4 years of tough weather patterns we had 4 years of relatively good weather patterns. U of I farmdoc actually put out an article last year about IL trend curve actually steepening in recent times. It may not correlate to national yield but for the countries #2 corn producer and #1 corn yielded it would seem to matter. | |
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New Perspective on Markets and ag
