IRRIGATOR - 2/8/2024 00:47

Everyone is down in the dumps, listening to all the talk of record yield and no demand and farmers are doomed. The corn yield was only 177. Total grain stocks only went up 30 million bushel. After all numbers cooked.

Why don’t we think about it differently for a change.

The Corn trend has been 2 bu per year up for 60 years. 22’ was 180 and We have fallen off trend starting in 19’. We were supposed to be 182 this last year in 23’. And 184 In 24. The usda has basically all but said we are flattening out our corn yield in the USA. They put the trend at 181.5 in 23’ and we finished with them saying 177ish. That still is far off trend. I don’t care if it’s record. It was not trend. In 24’ they put the trend at 182 on the long term outlook that came out at the end of last year. That number flattens the trend even more. Only raising the trend a half bushel. We will see what they do with it at the end of Feb in the usda outlook forum.

Farmers have invested in alot of game changer things in the last decade. Autosteer. Row clutches. Section control. Tile ect. All things that had instant yield changing ability’s. Now that everyone has the low hanging fruit upgrades, additional investments become less and less powerful to yield. A newer monitor that does the same thing but loads faster, doesn’t change the yield. Switching from 16 row to 24 doesn’t move the yield. This is why flattening the trend is happening. It is going to take capex to invent the next wave of game changers. Probably tech in the agronomy side. The higher we go with yields the harder it is to maintain the levels. The difference from zero effect is real. If we ever have some things go wrong with this crop. Yields could and will drop almost easier than yields could explode. If prices suck farmers will pull inputs back thus hurting yield as well. The older guys in this game won’t spend the big money on a crop. No incentive. The market has to rally each year to give hope and then the farmer puts the money into it. Then if the crop makes it. Pull price away as supply is there for a bit.

-Sub soil moisture levels continue to get drained at the deeper profiles each year. Rain and snow fills the topsoil. Not the deep profiles. It takes big events to deep fill.

-4 weeks missing rains, even in a wet year and a nice rally we will see. Because the what if it lasts 4 more weeks?

-could we get the perfect growing season? Maybe. Well then drive the price to zero and farmers can quit then and someone else can try it. Imagine what the National yield would do then if the guys sitting in town had to come out and do it all? Golf time….park the tractor. Grill out time. Park the sprayer…. Farmers are very good at doing there jobs. Pay them to do it and they can stimulate a lot of economy. Most of it local. The farmers should not even pay certain taxes, to be honest. Without food what does this county got? Is it a crime if farmers got rich and rebuilt there rural towns? The amount of unbelievable waste in a city is unbelievable compared to a rural farm town.

-New demands continue to develop for grain each year, some are public some are not.

-More money flowing in circulation than ever before. Can’t get that hamburger for $.39 anymore. So why is grain going to that level?

-The funds just happen to use the mass flow on the short side at the current time.

-8 billion people now on planet with more pets than ever before.

-food waste is massive.

-weather events appear to be violent maybe? They can clip 10 bushel off a crop. Remember a 172 is huge crop by the historic data. And that is way off the trend. Nobody knows the challenges to grow a big one each year like the farmer. Why listen to the people who sit in an office?

-Corn rallies 80 cents plus each year since the ethanol era began. And beans also don’t stay stable in a years time. Markets go up and markets go down. They will go up again and all these bullish cards will come out of the deck.

Underlying costs continue to go up to produce. Farms don’t have 8 plus kids doing free labor before and after school putting farm goods to market like it used to be.

The next generation is not going to farm the way there dads and grandparents did with bail wire and a pliers. Or should they drive 86 squarebodys for ever to keep the farm going?

It is going to take some capex coming into this game to keep the smart farm kids in this field or they will go work in other industry’s and do very well. And we can all eat insect proteins?

The farm kids are not brain washed with no connection to the world anymore. They are connected to the outside cities with phones And iPads. If farming doesn’t make money. They won’t do it. Very smart on there part. They can’t buy out there aunts and uncles anyway. So why should they try. Why waste a career opportunity in a space that doesn’t pay and in communities that are falling apart. The action is not on the farm. Since 2000 or so it has been In the cities with the massive nice neighbors and restaurants and new schools and church’s. With high paying jobs to boot.

In the rural areas. The schools are closing and churches are also closing. Most towns can’t keep the local bar burger joint going. There isn’t anything Left. Nobody wants to admit it. We need 20 plus years of ag capex to save it. Yea there is some bright spots. But ag only capitol run towns are dead.

There is an entire group of ag professionals making a living around the edges of farming post 2006. If markets don’t rally those careers are done as well. They can’t survive without farmers spending on the business they are in.

Every machine is loaded with def and other things to make the environment better. That has a cost. It goes into the prices slowly but surely. Many more items as well

I am sure it’s the farmers fault prices went down. And they should have had hedges right at the high. Like always. Some did! And they should plant with no cab all night while there buddies sleep in there beds in town. But these markets will Not stay down. Don’t let the talking heads brain wash a guy.

During 2020 the heads said 4 billion carryout expected. We went from $3 corn on the August wasda report to over $7 by May of 21’. No one had to explain. They just change the tune and the song plays on. With no repercussions.

The world needs farmers and it needs young smart farm kids to stay on the farms and to rebuild the crumbling communities. Don’t give the grain away. Would any other industry give it away????

Ag production is not a guarantee. And the market knows that. Our soils are weakening, and the farmers are all another year older.

The market is just taking advantage of the dropping prices right now, and it should be giving anyone a chance who needs grain to load up. I hope livestock guys can make nice profits and then the grain guys and we need to make farming great again!

Flame away and farm away!!

Thank you for taking the time and effort to compose and post this!