WHAT!!???  John, you are going to no-till something??  I figured the day you would no-till would be the day a black man is president......

I think in general, the runoff reductions of no-till are realized after a number of years in the system.  I'll also add that it appears to me that because no-till fields retain moisture so much better they get to holding capacity much quicker in a rain event.  When ground is worked a good deal of the soil moisture is released and the ground can more readily take in the rain.  That being said, I'd think you would rather keep the moisture you have rather than dry out your soil and hope for more!