I tend to agree with your analysis.  I think we are in an upward spiral on both the cost and return side for the time being.  I'm not all that excited about locking in any large quantity of sales without having everything locked in on the supply side too. Everyone thinks of the threat of having $4 corn go to $2 without pricing it, but it seems that a lot less consider the possibility that one could lock in $4 corn which ends up costing $4.20 to produce because they didn't protect their input costs. 

In the long run, the rent market is the big attenuator which absorbs all the change (up or down) in the production side and makes sure the end result is basically a reasonable return to labor, management, and capital.  In the short run there will be opportunity for gain or loss.   At least in our balance sheet, land cost and grain revenue are the significant factors.  Any other line item is pretty much a minor factor in the overall profit.