One big problem with the "quality of operations is generally good" thing.   If everyone is on a good footing much like the hog industry was the game of "chicken" last a long time bleeding tons and tons of equity.

If there are weaker operations in the mix they go out earlier saving the strong operations from losing so much equity. Much like the earlier train wrecks in the hog industry.

Basically every wreck takes out the weakest operations, enough wrecks and there aren't any weaklings left. The final wreck takes out everyone.