Okay.. I’ll pull the data up.  I understand how in the core of the Cornbelt.. which the majority of high yielding crops are raised.. an ever increasing trend can be expected.

Look at the dark green yields below.

Also notice the large areas where over 100 bu corn is significant.. but for irrigation.. that’s basically the case on the fringe.. expansion areas for corn.

Observation #1.. we still probably have a rather large revision coming to the 2022 corn crop.  Why?  Look at the basis.. and it takes time to decipher (from a govt perspective.. see Todd’s comments above..)

when I worked at the elevator we reported open storage.. a liability for us.. monthly to the grain regulators.

In irrigated feedlot country.. see that dark green yields in 2021 from sw Kansas down through the panhandles.. a good chunk of that corn gets put up as high moisture ground into pit bunkers.. maybe 35 to 50% idk.  I’m not sure but depending upon the lot.. they don’t report .. are not insured by the grain regulators.. so for that and other reasons.. on farm storage.. those bushels are a mystery to NASS until matching the commercial grain stocks.. which we’ve cleaned out.. my assumption from observation.. very little ground piles at elevators..

unlike this 2021 map.. when yields were good.. 2022 saw a large percentage of very poor yields.. from 220 in 2021 to 40 bu in 2022 or less.. as water was limited.  We’ve yet to see that revision imho.

And it’s continuing.. although rains have recently returned.. the drought monitor was just released.. I’ll add it.

and (I don’t know why I’m doing this but..) I’ll add my personal yields.. not 100% accurate as they are averages of averages.. just a quick and dirty look.. not reported to anyone.. and subject to revision.. huh.. couple loads long or short out of the bins in.. July.. or August.. or this year January.. (did I revise my historical averages table?). Oh well..

As you can see from my chart.. last year was tied for the 2nd worst dryland yields ever in my career.. and I suspect ditto for most of my neighbors.. a lot got chopped or baled.

Flip side.. you mentioned 2014.. which was a good dryland year for us.. 115 bu.  So.. we’re not representative of the whole fringe.. but.. I imagine that decent fringe dryland yields.. in our case of double vs trend.. added to the updraft for US yields.. is the fringe 20 million acres?

ND 3.75 if they can get it in..
SD 5.9
dryland Western Nebr ..?? 3 ish out of 9.5
Co 1.4
Ks 5.6
Okla 0.35
Tx. 2.05

yup give or take 20 million acres can swing between 80 to 100 bushels depending upon weather.

my dryland yields are highly variable.. we’ve done 185 bu fields.. next to 90.. but it takes good weather.. something we haven’t had for 2 years.. and or subsoil.. which we do not have enough of yet this year.

Frankly I’ll be surprised if we get over 90 million acres in.. as the fringe is tired of paying expensive corn inputs in a drought.. but who knows.. ??  As Lucy and the football experience.. Charlie Brown can be a sucker.. “This year I’m gonna kick my fringe yields to the Moon!”

Yes I can still see 23 being a 160 bu national yield if the rains stop.. and dryness.. aka 2012 sets up.. for the whole summer in Illinois.. but that’s probably not likely..

Can we do 150+ bu yields for 23 out here on the fringe?

after 2011.. it took us.. almost till 2014 to recover.. possible if it rains every 2 weeks.. but.. I’ll believe it when I see it.

in Illinois.. y’all get and think the rest of us.. are looking at ever increasing trends..

Here on the fringe.. how much longer are we gonna keep shoving $$$ buying high inputs to raise a crap shoot crop?

supposedly large acres of dryland corn in northwest kansas.. are switching to sorghum.. and other areas are just doing feed as feedstuffs.. are severely depleted here.

later.



 

(17E3A285-2923-43FF-87C7-DAD8B2CC418B (full).png)

(7B04DF50-A844-4AB8-956F-5FEFE99B7504 (full).png)

(IMG_20230525_083958984_HDR (full).jpg)

(33F4DF84-B841-470E-B7B6-CFEDA26EDF1A (full).png)

(IMG_20230525_075940184 (full).jpg)

17E3A285-2923-43FF-87C7-DAD8B2CC418B (full).png (113KB - 38 downloads)

7B04DF50-A844-4AB8-956F-5FEFE99B7504 (full).png (91KB - 45 downloads)

IMG_20230525_083958984_HDR (full).jpg (94KB - 30 downloads)

33F4DF84-B841-470E-B7B6-CFEDA26EDF1A (full).png (76KB - 39 downloads)

IMG_20230525_075940184 (full).jpg (73KB - 25 downloads)