Even though we don't want to hear it... every board needs a good bear.. just to keep things... in line.

In the movie 17 again, Mike O'Donnell (played by Zac Enfron) asks the question.. "Are you alright?" to his lifetime buddy and current guardian (it's an awkward situation..) Ned Gold (played very well by Thomas Lennon) after throwing a party and trashing his house.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gH52glOHfU

upon careful reflection.. and considering that the woman of his dreams... (SLAP) may have just walked out of his life.. (SLAP)... he responds.. "uhm.. I'm fine.. (SLAP) and you...? okay the third one was out of line." and they hug.

it's a good part of the movie.. probably one of my favorites.

Anyway.. again every board needs a good bear.. (SLAP) just to keep things in line (SLAP) because... sometimes we don't see reality (Slap..)

I wouldn't make a good bear because 1) it's against my DNA..  2) currently it's not paying very well.. and 3) who wants to spoil a good party?

so anywho... I honestly don't know where the markets will go from here. 

I understand that the risk premium of.. what shoe is going to drop next?...  Is very real in the Crude Oil market... we've been here before.. 1970's Crude Oil spikes.. the world was coming to an end.. followed by the 1986/87 Crash...  then spiked again during the early 1990's on the first Gulf war.. then crashed again by 1999.. and now.. 2008 to 150'ish.. which I believe we are on the back side of...??? (note: if not than this rally has a lot more potential..;-)  but who really knows???  Certainly NOT me!!

Can OPEC keep Crude at the current range?  Well everyone seems pretty convinced that they can... ???

I'm just asking the question... if Crude returned to levels of support... say???   what???  Maybe $40... what would the lay of the landscape be?  Then again.. we could just as easily challenge the highs...?????

So who knows?

I don't..  However, given where we are at...  Maybe $5.00 Corn, $10 Beans and Whatever wheat, rice, et all... don't look so bad.. and producers who may need to stregthen balance sheets...???   should give pause... to the opportunities at hand... and convert inventory to pay down debt.. or get ready for the next unexpected turn in life's highway... especially when our demand base.. could use inventory to "pay the bills."

that's all I'm saying.. with full acknowledgement that I DON'T KNOW what the future holds...

not a solicitation to trade.. blah blah blah.. People can and DO lose money trading commodities... and other pertinant legal fine print... etc..

"Good luck."

--- 

I still like Rascal Flatts... "If you're going my way... gimme..gimme..gimme... I want to drive it all night long..."

"To the NED mobile..." the beanies calleth...  I'm gonna win that Piston cup... yal buddy.

have a good one.