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The Irrational Bubble market of 2010.
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JonSCKs
Posted 9/15/2010 10:52 (#1360457)
Subject: The Irrational Bubble market of 2010.


Kansas harvested a record corn crop in 2009 at 589 mln bushels. This year is expected to be larger.. 600 plus for a state that uses something like 450... we are piling wheat in abandoned aircraft manufacturing facilities.. bunkers..basically anything that will hold it.. Until it can be shipped to market... somewhere.. at a time yet to be determined. Embarassed

Corn to be harvested is already going on the ground...  and every day I'm reading about a "shortage."  lol...

Meanwhile.. "here we go again.." The bubble of 2008 bankrupted several users of our products and created extreme stress in the livestock sector. You would think that we would learn from this....???

Right now the funds are long a record amount of contracts... Something like 420,000 contracts..???  That's 2.1 Billion bushels of paper...

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/ag_sf.htm

uhm.. yal I understand all the bullish reasons.. short crop in Russia.. demand based rally etc... but... what happens when these guys try to take profits????

Also.. despite Natural Gas being half the price it was in 2008... fertilizer is in a decided uptrend...   Do we learn NOTHING from history...????

Maybe corn shouldn't be at $3.00 I understand that... but this is crazy.. and it doesn't make any sense to subject the demand base AGAIN to a bubble.

We ARE NOT running out of grain.. We are running out of places to put it.. especially if we BANKRUPT our DEMAND BASE... AGAIN!!!  I just don't see the market's obsession with higher prices staring down a record corn crop... and yes even with a reduced yield it's still larger than anything we've ever done before.

the bulls need to take a time out.. and look around before charging over the cliff...

Heck run it to $7.00 again if you want.. but better get ready for the big fall if that happens.. Me.. just a nice and steady year in year out.. works.  What's wrong with "steady as she goes.." ???

anyway.. I yield the floor.. and step down from my soapbox.



Edited by JonSCKs 9/16/2010 01:24
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