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| C'mon Paul. Don't get the vapors.
I think the 3% liquid gain we're getting from ethanol right now is immaterial. Energy security? Really? How much energy security do you really think we are getting from Ethanol? How long could we run the U.S. fleet if we had to right now? 5 years from now? How much Potash are we importing? How many Chemicals? How much Urea and Anhydrous?
Smog is a red herring. Smog matters to a few Urban areas located in basins, mainly Cities like Los Angeles. Has smog changed much in Los Angeles? Studies say no. It's a change that really isn't needed in the vast majority of the country. And, time and again it's been studied, ethanol adds fewer jobs than the livestock jobs that have been lost. Ethanol is a POLITICAL animal, which is why it's so controversial. It was promoted in MO, as a cure for low corn prices, and, hey, look at that, it can be an oxygenate and help cure our smog problem. Awesome, let's go for it. Now, we're there. Anything above that is foolishness, the mandates are foolishness. At the same time we are mandating ethanol, we are blocking domestic drilling and oil production. We are blocking domestic electricity production from nuclear plants. If we had kept up on nuclear 20 years ago like we should have, how much less liquid fuels would we be using today? How much less heating oil, how much rail would have gone to overhead electric?
"I think corn ethanol is a stepping stone, and a good one, to help us get there from here."
To get where? Which major economy has "green" energy as a cornerstone? Which growing economy is doing it with "biofuels?". None, thats how many. Yes, Brazil has a major portion of it's fuel usage as ethanol. Look at the economy, look at the cars per capita, look at the miles driven, look at the standard of living. Is that what you want here? There is no free lunch. We're following this down a rat hole. If what you see is a future with ever spiraling energy costs, then, by all means advocate for the path we're taking. In the meantime, I'll sell to the ethanol plant down the road, it's a good market. I'll use ethanol. But, be aware, we've created a product with no natural market. If consumers had a choice, most of them wouldn't choose it. If politicians have a choice? Well, the first indication will be if the VEETC is renewed. My bet is it won't be. With corn prices spiraling up, will the usage mandates be maintained? What one political body decides, anther can redecide. There would be huge support in the American electorate for rolling back the ethanol mandates and spooling up domestic drilling and energy production. If we get a REAL energy policy ethanol will be way on the back burner, and may not even be on the stove. JMHO. | |
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The Future of Switchgrass as a Cellulosic Ethanol Feedstock
