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| The simple fact is that trend yield for 2010 is 158-159, no matter how you slice it.
USDA, and everyone else, has evidently bought into the MON, among others, hype that we're increasing yields exponentially. While it may be exponential to a point, it ain't at trend +5% like the Aug. and certainly not trend +3% like the Sept. The next guess will be closer to trend, with final probably trend <~3%>, or 154-155, and that might still be too high.
While not of 1993 proportions, of being waaaaaay too high all year, the rain makes grain theory. along with fair planting dates and conditions, not to mention weekly crop condition scouts never leaving the truck all summer & I presume drinking beer all day Sunday while viewing crops (either that or scouting their book), have lead us down a primrose path.
It's too bad it had to happen this way. Maybe it's no ones fault, it just happend this way, I'm not sure. I guess it's what makes a market. I'm sure there're many who wish they hadn't sold so much so low & many who wish they'd gotten more coverage.
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corn crop size estimates
