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Nevada, Iowa | I have been a slightly critical of Elwynn in the past but hopefully more in the form of satirical comedy. He has long called for a midwest drought and his time frame seems to be off a little. I guess we (as farmers) should all be pissed about that??
Frankly, I think he actually bats a better average than our local TV meteorologist does on a 48 hour forecast and Elwynn is looking out a lot farther than that. I have lost count of the times NOAA has called for 3+ inch rains here and we missed them entirely or called for 1/4 inch and we got 6. They are only looking ahead several hours on some of those.
Elwynn's comments from May 27 are copied below from his website, I really don't see anything outlandish about them. I think that that those of us that are too wet have developed a fungus in our shorts and it's making us a little cranky.
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The ENSO is wavering just to the La Nina side of normal. There is some indication that it will progress to become a La Nina. Will it be a La Nina in June to impact corn and soy? In July to impact soy? In late Aug to give a great harvest season and set up for a drought in 2011? Cannot say, but still near a 25% chance before June is over. The SOI is at +0.33 (+0.8 is La Nina). The sea temperature is cooling from Tahiti east (a La Nina indicator) and the atmospheric pressure is highest in a month at Tahiti (another indicator). Still the pressure is not really low in North Australia (Darwin) (Low there is an indicator).
The rain for May is shy of normal for NC and SC but not really drought, still it needs watching as long as it is not wet in the area.
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Well if Elwynn Taylor comes back
