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| Following up from a double crop soybean thread below:
If we see more soybean acres than expected this year, the following events could create the "perfect storm" for soybean GRIP in my opinion.
Many southern (and middle) wheat acres could/will go to soybeans following wheat, due to high prices. Many more acres of marginal ground might also be planted to soybeans due to high prices and low input costs.
South America could follow with more soybean acres for the upcoming 09 season.
If some/all of these events occur, we could see sub $10 soybeans, and also lower than normal yields for some counties (marginal ground, double crop, etc). If this happens, many counties may experience soybean yields lower than normal, paired with lower prices, causing high levels of GRIP to pay.
Many counties I've applied the minimum GRIP soy price to ($10.36) would pay in every yield situation experienced by that county over the last ten years, under these circumstances.
Attached is an example for Polk County, IA. I've lowered the RA price to $9.36, to show a relationship between GRIP minimum price compared with a much lower RA price too.
What are your thoughts?
Thanks, Rob
Attachments
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 Polk IA SB low price GRIP-RA comparison.pdf (86KB - 286 downloads)
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Soybean GRIP "perfect storm"?
