Ii

A major characteristic of the cattle business that is different from most other crops and livestock (poultry, hogs, etc) is that it takes somewhere around THREE OR FOUR YEARS to make an increase in the size of the herd.

As a row crop guy used to the annual cycle of row crop production, I was not quite aware of the length of time things take in the full cycle cattle business.

If I decide to increase my herd size and keep a spring 2011 heifer as a breeder, she is bred in the summer of 2012, calves in spring of 2013 and her steer is not ready for processing until some time in  late 2014 or even 2015.  And that heifer is using up grass, hay, feed and other resources between 2011 and 2015 without producing any income.

From a spring 2011 decision, I don't have a finished product until probably 2015. And what will cattle prices be like in 2015 ??? Anyone contracting for 2015 right now so a cattleman can lock in a selling price on the decision he has to make now?

Not only does it take a long time to produce another steer but we obviously also give up significant income by NOT selling the heifer as a calf or for beef in her prime at current good prices.

I'm sure the above is not news to folks on here but it does strike me as a relative newcomer to cattle just how long things take in the cattle business.

Even with higher cattle prices, I just dont see the US herd size increasing very much nor very quickly. It can't do anything very quickly. I would imagine the same fundamentals hold true for other countries also.

It took a long time of low prices to slowly reduce the cattle herd size.

It will probably take a long time of much higher priices to increase the herd size and it will happen slowly no matter what. At least from what I see of the cattle business. fwiw.

Jim at Dawn

edit: I've been thinking about this US herd size a bit more. I think a more likely scenario (and what I plan on doing) rather than just keeping a heifer to increase the herd size is keep the heifer but sell an older cull cow at todays good cull cow prices after weaning this year or next.  Net result is a younger, hopefully better genetics herd but no net increase in the US herd size.

another factor is that retaining a heifer in 2011 as a breeder also removes her fromthe available beef supply in 2012 which is only made up by her first calf which enters the beef supply in 2015. So in the end if I retain a heifer calf in 2011 there is no net increase in the US beef supply  from that heifer until 2016 even if I don't cull her dam.

Did I miss something here?