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| I do not wish to get folks 'bulled up'...but as I have previously mentioned, I have been engaged in a research project for a long time friend-firm in the Orient & have waited for this report to finish the project. The world is changing demand wise in several directions. The wheat deal in Russia has just suddenly drawn attention to agriculture. As I related for a few months in the newsletter (will put one out this weekend) these grain markets have been 'sold out' --with very little speculative interest or commercial long interest. The world watches us as the big player and our weather has been like a greenhouse. Except as I have also related, temps above 92 & excess moisture have proven as yield drags in the past & we have to see how these modern hybrids hold up to the stress. The chicago professionals have been bearish...very bearish. I know those attitudes & if you sat down with some of those folks...they would (two weeks ago) laughed you out of the room if you were friendly to corn or soybeans or wheat. It is evident on the first up move, those boys/girls sold into it. Right now all I note on the newswire is "we have an abundant supply of wheat" -maybe we do. Except when you read those stories, it reflects folks are nervous AS THEY REALLY DON'T KNOW. At this moment, I am going to guess the NRO, the DIA & CIA are scrambling to get a grip on the real situation in europe. Maybe there is minimal damage. However, the price line will eventually reflect the truth. But, that is not the issue. The issue is, the demand for corn is yet understated by WASDE (typical as they want to be conservative) & if the final crop report is near 162 yield ALL HE$$ is going to cut loose.
Should this occur the issue on the table will be political.
I noted on one of the financial channels the other day the CEO of Mosaic was interviewed & I caught some of it as I own the stock. He emphasized their excitement about potential profit as they were going to "wait a bit" to see how ag prices unfolded before they offered much more inventory for sale at current price levels.
I have no answers, all I know is things are changing & if certain factors materialize....this grain market could cook....or, if those factors do not materialize its back to the aluminum can route & a part-time job at Wal-Mart & a menu of Spam & hard tack.
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$5 corn?
