Ask Cal-ISO how well these predictive likelihood distributions and models work. ;-) And then ask the industrial base on interruptable power rates how well these models work.

They have combined-cycle NG peaker plants going in all over the place. And still, they have Stage 1 power restrictions, with the occasional stage 2 restriction being enforced.

There's a reason why I wail on California and the loons that run that state: if there's a goofy idea, they're drawn into it full-force, like a hedgehog being sucked into a black hole in the ground.