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| "I have noticed on many post you are very entrenched in the idea that things will not be good until rainbows and sunshine start shooting out of people's @sses."
What I am entrenched in, is that we are into, somewhere, the back side of a credit bubble, and we aren't going to have a recovery by reflating another credit bubble. We need to actually produce something of service to somebody for money that we can exchange. There are certain industries that are, indeed, doing pretty well. And, yes, our economy is huge, that's why we haven't "gone Greece" yet.
IMHO, what we are now is a "grind" type situation, where we'll basically slobber around 10% unemployment, until things get worse. All that cash those companies have hoarded? Replaces the credit they can't get and is prepared for the tax hikes they know are coming. The govt won't leave that cash in their hands if it can help it. There's also the very real possibility we are in a bond bubble right now. What happens if govt's start forfeiting on muni's? Do you realize how many jobs we have to create to get back to 5% unemployment from here? It's something on the order of 500K a month for at least two years. We've NEVER done that, not even in the go-go days following Reagan. I'm not really looking to cash in on the "huge opportunities" I'm basically trying to make sure that I avoid the pitfalls that I think are ahead. I also watch railfax and container loadings fairly closely, and the numbers are tailing back to 2009 levels of goods shipments. The Baltic dry index is still languishing. In short, the ONLY thing that points to a recovery is consumer spending. How sustainable is that? For some perspective, check out Denninger. http://market-ticker.org/
I'm serious, if you have any actual positive indicators, other than oil prices and the stock market, it'd be awesome to see them.
Edited by Pofarmer 9/15/2010 11:21
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Take 5 more off
