|
NE IOWA/ SE SD | Yes. On the tour my friend Pete had the furthest south route in Illinois. He started on in Bloomington, headed south of Springfield, then up to Keokuk, IA and Iowa City. On the entire route he had 2 samples that were above 200 (one of which was the infamous "profarmer had the field @ 200bpa and the field actually went 140bpa") the rest of the samples were from 88 bpa to 160. Yields northwest of Bloomington (my route that day) were consistently in the 200-210 area. which is more normal.
I think a lot of these early yield belong to poorer fields that were killed off early do disease, lack of N, or too much water. Going forward I predict yields will simply get less bad when they are compared year over year.
I also predict that USDA will show an acreage change to try and keep a cap on any rally that could be caused by a yield decline. If the floor has "priced in" a 162 yield in this report, they may get that yield, but if USDA adds a half million acres, that will cause around 160 million decrease in carryout (1.15) vs. what feels like most people are pricing in a 1.0 carryout.
Edited by yoohoo 9/5/2010 16:18
| |
|
WALLS
