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| We started and finished the dryland corn here almost 1 month ahead of last year. Yields may be down a little.. but still a pretty decent crop.. with a storage situation that is tight... we will be dumping corn on the ground at some point. Last year the guys east of us were bragging... this year it's the guys west of us... "always someone..."
The outlook for this year's crop is that it will dry in the field vs being harvested in the snow at a high moisture rate in the spring. Also the economic outlook/blender's credit/ethanol/Crude scenerio is such that if prices take off.. demand will shut down..??? big difference than 2008 when Crude went to $140... and the last time we saw $5.00 corn.
So I don't deny seeing the upward pressures... but also caution to not take for granted what is already offered.
Lot's of variables...
Remember.. we have 1.5 mln more harvestable acres this year... and it looks more likely that it will mature and be hauled across the scales before the snow flies... There could be enough even with a lower yield...??? We will still need to add MORE ACRES next year though.. if we sail through this one.. it will be because of relatively good yields.. even if lower than 09...??? Ks is forecast to raise a record corn crop at 629 mln bushels this year vs 598 last year and 486 the year before... all on higher acres. The yields could be down this year...????
On the other hand... if you want $5.00 corn... pay me to short the market and I can almost promise it... (will need to cover my losses and buy me a steak... lol... ;-)
Have you ever watched a litter of little pigs run around in a pen?
"Hey let's run over there".. and they all go.. then stop... (Russian wheat failure..)
"That was cool... now what?"
"Well.. let's run back to where we started..." and off they go... (what comes after Russian wheat failure...???)
Kind of reminds you of CME traders doesn't it...???? no offense to traders.
I've been told we are dumping wheat on the ground in some places (at terminals...) to make room for the corn in the country...?? The world is not running out of wheat.. right now... next year...??? There is time to grow more.. if mother nature cooperates..?? The market is doing it's job to incentive producers to raise more.. more wheat... more corn.. which can then be feed to pigs.. so they can mature to make... bacon.
Watch and learn from the pigs.. but think twice before you decide to join them...
have a blessed and safe harvest.
Edited by JonSCKs 8/25/2010 09:53
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$4.75-$5.00 + CORN
