Oswald No-Till Farm Cleghorn, IA | Eddie,
I haven't done kernel count yield estimates in something like 15-20 years. The variability is just too high. I look for plant-plant consistency.
On corn, "here" last year, we harvested the highest volume per acre ever that weighed and dried down to 10-20% above average depending on field history but also driven by hybrid maturity with early being better.
This year, on our farm, we started warm and slightly wet, then froze and went cold and dry slowing regrowth. However, flowering did occur at reasonably normal-slightly early dates for the parts of the field not saturated. July-first week August has been incredibly wet for "here".
Positives are on-time planting, spring ammonia, good stand counts, no heavy wind storms (so far) to lodge plants, reasonable insect pressure, plenty of moisture, reasonable heat, and fungicide application to help control leaf disease and maybe enhance plant performance. Not sure on relative sunlight units with all the rain we have gotten (mostly at night).
Negatives are frost and cold first part of May, some screwy plants in the stand count reducing plant-plant consistency, leaf disease to top leaf of some hybrids, plenty of saturated (though not flooded) spots, foggy or wet days, warm nights and possibly too warm days since pollination. Moves to earlier hybrids were common so it is hard to estimate if the relative hybrid package is a "best fit" for the year we have been served.
One would expect better test weight to partially offset plant disease and variable earing plant to plant. I think there is potential for above average but am not sure if the net-net will be more than dried yield last year. I don't count chickens before they hatch because I have seen heavy lodging windstorms in August take 200 bu/ac potential to 160 or less in minutes as the plants do NOT straighten up and plant efficiency drops.
You can go 15-30 miles and see significant differences due to more slope and moisture relief, less frost, fewer saturating rain events, later more heat tolerant hybrids to better fit "warm" year.
On beans, the cool/dry start kept no-till growth behind tillage beans but row closure is good. Tillage beans that grew really fast early in the area are showing signs of lodging due to heavy rains. Saturation that has occurred is never good for beans.
Positives: Treated soybean seed, decent stands, little hail (so far), reasonable plant size on soils with decent drainage. Fungicide and/or insecticide treatment to protect yield potential with low aphid levels so far.
Negatives: Excess moisture! potential for disease like SDS, phytopthora, and white mold. Some variability due to cool weather at planting.
My hope is that beans can make average with a pleasant surprise due to Headline fungicide protected seed size response. Highly vegetative soybeans are not a good thing "here" in my mind. My best soybeans over the years seem to come in years that have slight dry moisture stress keeping plants more healthy, heavily podded, and a bit short. Often, those seem to require running the reel only up an inch from clear down. This year, we have neither.
It is a WAG.
Tom
Edited by notilltom 8/6/2010 23:45
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