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North Central Illinois | With the crop ratings Minnesota has I would certainly think there is potential for them to set a record. Trouble is that you don't grow all of the corn in the world in Minnesota. There is so much variability over most of the cornbelt that it is difficult to gauge final yield at this time. My guess is that on average it will be a pretty good crop. You guys up there will make up for some areas that are really bad and so forth. Trouble is that all winter and spring traders were counting on close to 90 million acres of corn planted and record yields to go with that based off of early planting etc. Well, the crop did get planted early and got off to a good start but then a very large portion of the cornbelt saw between 10 and 20 inches of rain in June. Sorry, but that kind of moisture causes damage that won't be repaired. In most cases the damage in any given field are as a percentage small, but they do add up. I would guess on average in my area we lost around 5%. My guess is that instead of harvested acres running 91% of planted acres as is usually the case, we will see harvested acres run in the neighborhood of 88% of planted acres. Again, the early planting and a nice May will help the good areas of the field provided they stay well watered, and don't burn up in August. Then there is denitrification. This will be a factor but at this point am not sure how big of a factor. Just some things to consider. You fellows are in a really enviable postion up there. You have a really nice crop in the making and the potential for some really good prices. I don't blame you selling a little here and there on the way up. Its pretty hard not to when you start doing the math. | |
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Cornbelt forecasts
