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SE MN | I appreciate the reply.
It does make a big difference for a person‘s marketing planned when you stop trying to guess what the number should be and start thinking about what the USDA will tell you the number is and proceed accordingly
The problems I have are when USDA prints a number for an expected yield that we have never come close to. And then treats that like gospel. I don’t know one person that starts out the year expecting a 3% increase over the best year they’ve ever had. Or goes back in adjust numbers from two years ago to fit their current narrative. There is not one place in the private sector where you would be allowed to keep your job if you had to do that. And yes, I still have a red rear end from the September 2020 USDA report. Market signal was telling us there was less crab available all summer long. Basis was strong there was no carry in the market, especially for corn. Yet we were told over and over that the 2019 was huge and we just didn’t know what we were talking about. and then all of a sudden they were 300 million less bushels Of Old Crop. On a percentage basis that’s a huge drop in three months. It would be one thing if that 300 million bushel was the change from January but it wasn’t. That’s a massive screwup. As I’ve said before, I don’t think they are lying As that infers level of competence and understanding that I do not believe they have.
Again, I appreciate the reply. You have your reasons and opinions, I have mine. | |
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CONAB
