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S Illinois | They have the best numbers out there especially when one understands the limitations and deficiencies of those numbers. All other source have even more problems in data collection size, bias, or ulterior motives. Those other sources also don’t like to publish look back data to see how poor the estimates were.
After being burnt by supposedly the closest ground thruthers out there aka farmers, one looks for other sources. I also realize that a bushel here or there doesn’t move the market so I don’t get bent out of shape with the exactness some expect. Also using them as a scapegoat doesn’t gain me anything. So until better data is available and we can scrap them, I prefer to use and understand the numbers. Hence my initial question, how much lower is CONAB on average than USDA. I can then take that number and plug in possible demand going forward.
To me it doesn’t matter if USDA is 200mb higher than CONAB year after year because the USDA likely has higher Brazilian demand than CONAB because in the end all that matters is carryout. | |
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CONAB
