I admit what I posted was misleading, in terms of the transition of La Nina. But the following is more in line with the current transition from El Nino to La Nina. but It depends greatly on what month it transition from neutral to La Nina. While some models show that transition happening as early as may or June, The Australian Bureau of meteorology doesn't , so who will be right ?, only time will tell.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/fdd160316.pdf

Based on these observations, we can now consider whether the transition from a strong El Niño episode to either neutral conditions or to a La Niña episode has a notable impact on corn and soybean yield performance. In our previous article on corn (farmdoc daily, March 2, 2016), we found that average yield was below trend 42 percent of the time following a strong El Niño episode (five years out of twelve), compared to the 1960-2015 unconditional average of 39 percent, and by an average of 3.3 bushels. In our previous article on soybeans, (farmdoc daily, March 9, 2016), we found that average yield was below trend 42 percent of the time following a strong El Niño episode (five years out of twelve), compared to the 1960-2015 unconditional average of 39 percent, and by an average of 1.0 bushels. The summary in Table 1 indicates that the transition from a strong El Niño episode to neutral conditions portends slightly less risk of below-trend corn and slightly more risk of below-trend soybean yields. Averaged across the three summer months, we find that the corn (soybean) yield was below trend 30 (44) percent of the time by an average of 2.5 (1.4) bushels following transitions to neutral conditions. There is compelling evidence that the transition from a strong El Niño episode to La Niña conditions elevates the risk of below-trend corn and soybean yields. Averaging again across the three summer months, we find that the corn (soybean) yield was below trend 61 (50) percent of the time by an average of 6.9 (1.4) bushels. The results for June show that the earlier the transition to La Niña conditions the greater the risk of below-trend yields.

(--wpex-heading-font-weight); color: var(--wpex-heading-color);">Implications

Our analysis paints a mixed picture of the relationship between the transition status of major El Niño episodes and corn and soybean yield performance. The transition from a strong El Niño episode to neutral conditions portends slightly less risk of below-trend corn yields and slightly more risk for soybean yields. History suggests that a transition to La Niña by June, July, or August may measurably raise the risk of corn and soybean yields falling below trend. From 1960 through 2015, average corn and soybean yields were below trend 39 percent of the time. La Niña conditions following a strong El Niño have resulted in yields below trend from 40 to 67 percent of the time in the past, depending on the month that La Niña conditions formed. Yield risk was generally larger the earlier that La Niña conditions emerged. The nature of the transition of the current strong El Niño episode is still to be determined. The current episode remains strong, but has substantially weakened in the past month. At the current pace of transition, neutral conditions could exist as early as June and La Niña as early as July. This bolsters our previous conclusion that downside yield risks for corn and soybeans in 2016 are elevated because of the strong ongoing El Niño episode. It also suggests one should keep a close eye on whether a transition to La Niña occurs by summer."

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