Isn’t it ironic that when that farm Doc paper was written..  July 11th 2022.. we were in a La Nina coming off record prices (thanks to Putin going into Ukraine) and it was diminishing the effects of La Nina’s while not including 1988 as a data point?

so why bother?

and you trot it out again as we’re forecast to exit the current El Nino.. back to La Nina.. 

Nevermind the word salad of confusing terms and definitions.

I just posted below that being armed with good weather forecasting data.. which still highly relies upon chance.. can dup a producer like me.. who currently has “more than enough” forward contracts to be dangerous should a drought occur.. but not 100% with a small percentage left in the bin.. watching prices decline.