ENSO StrengthsThis table shows the forecast probability (%) of Niño-3.4 index exceeding a certain threshold (in degrees Celsius).
For negative thresholds, the table shows the probability (%) of a Niño-3.4 index value that is less than (more negative) that value.
For positive thresholds, the table shows the probability (%) of a Niño-3.4 index value that is greater than (more positive) that value.
This tool supports the official ENSO Diagnostic discussion updated on the 2nd Thursday of each month. |
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| Target | ≤ -2.0°C | ≤ -1.5°C | ≤ -1.0°C | ≤ -0.5°C | ≥ 0.5°C | ≥ 1.0°C | ≥ 1.5°C | ≥ 2.0°C | | JFM | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 | ~100 | ~100 | 53 | ~0 | | FMA | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 | ~100 | 72 | 1 | ~0 | | MAM | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 | 75 | 7 | ~0 | ~0 | | AMJ | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 | 2 | 19 | 1 | ~0 | ~0 | | MJJ | ~0 | ~0 | 3 | 26 | 6 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 | | JJA | ~0 | 3 | 20 | 55 | 3 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 | | JAS | 2 | 12 | 37 | 68 | 2 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 | | ASO | 6 | 21 | 47 | 74 | 2 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 | | SON | 11 | 28 | 53 | 77 | 3 | ~0 | ~0 | ~0 | | | ≤ -2.0°C | ≤ -1.5°C | ≤ -1.0°C | ≤ -0.5°C | ≥ 0.5°C | ≥ 1.0°C | ≥ 1.5°C | ≥ 2.0°C | The values are based on the analysis published in:
L'Heureux, M. L., Tippett, Michael K., Takahashi, Ken, Barnston, Anthony G., Becker, Emily J., Bell, Gerald D., Di Liberto, Tom E., Gottschalck, Jon, Halpert, Michael S., Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Johnson, Nathaniel C., Xue, Yan, and Wang, Wanqiu, 2019: Strength Outlooks for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 165-175, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0126.1. |
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