With 4.40 corn, this doesn't sound too good!

December 27, 2007 Hogs and Pigs Report Analysis - John Lawrence, Iowa State University

Losses Mount and Inventories Grow for Pork Producers
The USDA released the December Hogs and Pigs report on the 27th and estimated the inventory of all hogs to be 65.1 million head, up 4.2 percent from a year earlier. The market hog inventory was up 4.5 percent while the breeding herd increased 1.1 percent indicating that herd expansion is still underway. The USDA reported numbers were higher than the pre-report market hogs estimates of +3.5 percent and equal to the pre-report breeding herd estimate. The report will likely be seen as neutral to bearish by the trade. The Iowa State University Estimated Returns to Farrow-to-Finish operations reported losses of nearly $29/head on November sales. Losses on hogs sold in December are expected to be nearly as large. Given corn and soybean meal prices predicted for 2008, cost of production for farrow-to-finish operations is projected to be near $70/cwt carcass weight or in the mid-$50/cwt live weight. Hog prices are forecast to be below breakeven throughout the year with the exception of possible profits on the summer highs. Thus, 2008 is shaping up to be a negative return year for pork producers.
For the complete report summary by John Lawrence go to: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/lawrence/IFO122707.pdf

Dale Ricker
O.S.U. Program Specialist, Swine
124 Putnam Parkway
 Box 189
Ottawa, Ohio 45875

Phone: 419-523-6294
Fax: 419-523-3192
Cell: 419-231-0884
E-mail: [email protected]
WEBSITE: http://porkinfo.osu.edu/index.html

I guess the  hog barn won't be opening again too soon!

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