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Dodgeville, Wisconsin | To start at the very beginning, I would argue that a comprehensive evaluation of the fundamental information available will not correlate well to current market price. The imperative link between fundamentals and market price may well be the psychological perception the marketplace gives price every day.
Any given fundamental shock, such as governmental intervention, may manifest itself with an easy transparency, such as Russia’s wheat embargo. But the grain price had long prior started its upward climb before that one piece of fundamental information came to the forefront.
Uffta, I would also argue that world ending stocks would be one fundamental piece of information of value, which could indicate what way the ‘wind’ could blow price in the near term future, but a close study of price movement by itself, would yield a better comprehension of what price may do in the near future
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An argument of what fundamental information is valid or not seems to me to produce little, if any, value in prognosticating price movement in the future. If we have a drought driven market, here in the USA, then the market always seems to top some weeks before we ever receive any rain here at home.
If price is what we are concerned with, then it seems to me to pay attention to price movement, as it is more important to our evaluation, rather than being caught up in a circular discussion of incomplete fundamental information.
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An economic question and your thoughts.
