I always appreciate Ray J's perspective as well as Senior's..

Hey.. here's something else that changed my perspective quite a bit from what "I thought I knew.."  this week.

Trent Loos and Kyle Bauer interviewed Jim Simpson about Chinese Swine production.. on their Wednesday podcast of Rural Route.. http://www.ruralrouteradio.com/  (again look for the Wednesday podcast.. probably will be replaced shortly...???  Very good interview imho.)

"46% of all hogs raised in the WORLD are fed in China..." (pretty impressive stat..) Also, "40% of what is fed to those hogs is crop residue.. greater than the percentage of grain fed.."

hmm.. that kind of challenges my (former??) belief that China is going to someday be importing feedgrains (yes they already buy a lot of DDG's) like they do Soybeans...???

You know the thing that kind of keeps me awake at night is thinking about how.. Russia, Europe and somewhat maybe the ECB.. is coming up a little short...   In the good book it talks about stashing away the plenty from 7 good years in preparation for the 7 years that came after...

We had a good run on the dryland corn out here on the plains in the late 1990's then by about 02/03 the wheels fell off the truck...  Now we're back on the "happy trails" but as things continue to cycle... will we be ready for the next down turn?

I remember the SouthEast drought in 87.. became the Corn belt drought of 88 and even the HRW wheat drought through the spring of 89...  Basically all we harvested of one quarter section in 89 was the mudholes.. averaged across the whole field it only made 3 bpa.. and the whole farm only did about 15...  so... I expect to see another period like that in my lifetime.. hopefully not for a GOOD LONG TIME though... fingers crossed.

I was gearing up at the start of this year to say that 2 Billion in ending stoxs wasn't going to be that bearish given the demand base.. I guess I don't need to repeat myself for something less than 2 billion bu...

Meanwhile.. we just signed up another..???  4 mln acres into the CRP...??  Are we doing the right thing?  I agree that the CRP has been very successful in maintaining sensitive acres in conservation.. And we need to keep that in grass.. maybe we could hay it?  and feed WDG's with it to livestock.. kind of like China does...??  Or even use it for Cellulosic ethanol.. provide more jobs and take some of the pressure of the grains...???

We may need to find ways to stomp down a little MORE on the production throttle if we are going to come up this short on production....????

As an advocate of ethanol.. I do not want to see people go without.. and I don't think that will happen.. but we got to keep planning.. and getting ready.. "the 7 good years.. in preparation for those that follow.."

jmho.. I could be wrong.