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Red River Valley | But in my area ( red river valley ) the end users and unit shippers are booked up until Feb-March of next year and to the south of me I'm hearing that bunkers and flat storage is being filled with old crop corn as we speak ( pre harvest) so knowing what I know I'm selling HTA's into the March time frame with the thought that I will roll them all the way out to Sept. but at this point I would not go beyond March but if you think the crop is as bad as some here are talking than I would sell the July and wait for it to invert back to the March.
Side note to 2010-2011 selling from this point forward I belief the funds have total control so I would not look for a setback in these markets they will run higher until they collapse not sure what the driver of the collapse will be but I have a few Ideas most are know ( and thought crazy ) but that's ok I am selling a little on each Friday morning opening that is higher than the previous Friday market. I have started to sell 2011 crop Into the July 11 futures and I believe that when we get to July they will be at least flat to carry to Sept and or Dec. and I will roll to those month's and pick up maybe as much as .40 this has some risk ( maybe more than most will except) but in the end I believe it works but realize that if the whole US crop is what some on here think it is than Inversions can be a killer. I will make a major sell ahead of certain reports and also I have a trade that I talked about putting on ahead of reports first time failed and lost couple of pennies will see how next time fares.
BTW the reason most farmers will miss the near Top on this corn MARKET is because when the government report comes out and stops the market is because they will now that the government is just rigging the game and because of that they know that the market will come back and prove them right so they will not sell on the first chance to sell knowing they will get another chance when the truth is known this IS all IMHO of course.
A slightly negative report out of the government will be a limit down day or two IMHO 500,000 contract to sell at this level is not going to be fun to watch. basis is telling us a story as farmers we need to listen.
Edited by Tara Farms 9/18/2010 09:21
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help on spreads, Tara or anybody
