I responded to this post because the subject was about market emotions.  Emotions and markets behaving irrationally are what bankrupted Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), Enron, and Lehman Brothers.  Fundamentals work 99% of the time, but emotion is human and unpredictable. 

Many on this board follow fundamentals and I am grateful for the wealth of market knowledge and instincts.  I also think it is good to follow the emotions of farmers because many of us have the same emotion swings (gut feelings) that come from front line crop growing experience and the collective emotion swings does change market fundamentals in a non-disclosed sort of way.  It is something that quantum computing and algorithimic equations are not privy to. 

So do I have good fundamental market advice? No.  Have I reviewed COT reports and export numbers? No.  But I believe I do have inside information on what I as a grower might be feeling and this is it:

1. USDA numbers on thursday may be bullish, or may be bearish.  I don't really care.  I am not a day trader. Since I have lost all faith in government string pullers, I believe they will give a report that is to their liking. (to keep prices down)  If I need more money at harvest to pay bills than what I've allready contracted, I might forward contract a little more before they spike my market. 

2. Dollar is falling, Economy is uncertain, Russia is Hot, and so are my beans.  Farmers are wealthier and have more bin storage.  As a group, they hold less debt than 5 years ago. (notice I said they)  Hands are stronger and will not fork over grain just to get by.  Taxes will be going up next year.  Grain in bins is better than cash in the bank.

3. The only reason the prices haven't risen more is because of all of last years corn that has been feverishly trading hands the last 4 weeks to make room for new crop.  I believe in incremental sales, but not based on the calender.  I don't feel I'm rewarding a rally if I sell now.  The way I see it, we won't be in a rally until I can sell corn at my local elevator for 4.00 again. (3.70 now)

4.  My gut says yields will be down from last year, and exports will be up.  I just have to wait to sell until the USDA acknowledges this. (We all need to reject deferred pricing contracts!)

These are all gut feelings and emotions which by no means qualifies as advice, but has been known to topple some of the biggest financial institutions and most highly advanced supercomputers, and well rationalized trading plans.