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NE IOWA/ SE SD | I was finally going through the corn yield data that Senior was kind enough to share earlier this week. I would like some other thoughts on what I think I have found as a trend.
Since in the August yield projections USDA only does an ear count....the August report can be the highest yield projection. (common knowledge) The trend I think I have found is that a lot of how they change yield the rest of the year depends on test weight. I've always said in 200 bu/ac. corn territory good test weight can add 10-15 bushel.
So the historical data shapes up like this for Iowa:
----------Aug report---------Nov report---------average test weight on my farm
2005-------164-----------------175----------------------59
2006-------173-----------------163----------------------55
2007-------180-----------------175----------------------56
2008--------171-----------------172---------------------55.5
2009--------185-----------------183---------------------52
So, my prediction is, is that this report will be the highest yield we see this year. And overall test weights will be down, not as bad as last year, but back to the 54-56 area due to the heat speeding the crop through the fill stage and due the very quick dry down we will probably see.....though natural drying test weights tend to be better.
Just my 2 cents. What say you?
Edit: 2008 test weight
Edited by yoohoo 8/7/2010 15:57
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Test weight vs. USDA yield projections
