We recently had a discussion about the fact a rally depends more on having a pool of those willing to sell. Sellers end up being more important than buyers.

Looking at open interest and volume, are there still sellers in the market? It appears that open interest has been increasing in the Dec Wheat since 6 Jul. That was 454067 open interest. As of 6 August, open interest is 512627 and still increasing. Volume has been @ 180,000+/- for the last 3 days, but Friday appears will be a higher day. A/O midnight it is 8.48. High volume was on 2 August, an up day, with 246,137. This was followed by a lower day on the 3rd and a slight decrease in OI .

This info is available here .

 On 2 August members reported that farmers had sold 60-70% of their crop.

Back on the 4th, SC said

"As of the last COT....small specs are still too short, except in MPLS....the funds have been into KC for a few weeks...& we are entering a seasonal whereby chicago gathers steam versus KC....large traders were still too short in chgo...funds were just getting started.
Also, check the ETF's...as relatively new to the process....GCC GRU JGG we may pick up the more conservative players"

Looking at the earlier discussion, are we watching for a spike in volume and a decrease in open interest as a signal the last round has been served and the bartender has gone home and we should also?

Do you agree with this thought process? How do MAC-D signals blend with this?

Help and critique appreciated!