The Australian cereal crop is   historically highly variable.   That's just the nature of this environment.

IMHO  the  statement made by Silver Aussie above is a really, really big call in late July.  There's a long way to go  yet.

I'd agree... there are some potentially black clouds on the production horizon, and mice and  locusts  in particular, account for  a couple of those.   But there are ALWAYS  some  kind of potentially black clouds on the horizon.