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USDA & CONAB in 2 days - market audio comments
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JonSCKs
Posted 4/10/2024 12:14 (#10701625 - in reply to #10701596)
Subject: Stocks report shows light commercials.. so they dump it in farmer stored.


w1891 - 4/10/2024 11:47

No one is ignoring that report. Especially the market. What the market and traders doesn’t believe is the analysis that old crop demand is underreported by 300-500 because demand increases must be linear throughout the year.


 Linear throughout the year?  

So if cattle were forced into the lots for lack of feed.. that’s not allowed eh?  What about 2 new ethanol plants coming online this summer?  Is that allowed?

demand is what it is..

in regards to your “stocks report”..

Corn Stocks Up 13 Percent from March 2023 Soybean Stocks Up 9 Percent

All Wheat Stocks Up 16 Percent

Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2024 totaled 8.35 billion bushels, up 13 percent from March 1, 2023. Of the total stocks, 5.08 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 24 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.27 billion bushels, are down 1 percent from a year ago. The December 2023 - February 2024 indicated disappearance is 3.82 billion bushels, compared with 3.42 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2024 totaled 1.85 billion bushels, up 9 percent from March 1, 2023. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 933 million bushels, up 24 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 912 million bushels, are down 3 percent from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2023 - February 2024 quarter totaled 1.16 billion bushels, down 13 percent from the same period a year earlier


How is it that commercial inventories are down.. but more than offset by on farm stocks?  In round numbers..  shouldn’t the two move together?

it looks like NASS was driving a square peg through a round hole to me.. “The on farm numbers MUST BE HIGHER.. in order to match the yield guesstimated..

OR.. the yield is also too high?  Since you don’t have all the counties estimated.. how do you know? 

NOLA isn’t the only demand driver in the US.

please.. your numbers don’t add. 

“The farmer is undersold..”. On bushels which only exist on paper. 



Edited by JonSCKs 4/10/2024 12:17
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