FW30 - 2/9/2024 18:25

The dot com boom lasted at least 5 years before the bust. This AI boom is barely on its second year...

Market Cap to GDP? What kind of metric is that? The companies on the US stock exchanges do more business globally today than they did 30 years ago...

More passive indexing and 401K vs pension are tailwinds to supplying capital to the stock market. There are record amounts of cash sitting on the sidelines missing out on this entire multi-year tech rally because of perma-bears like this guy. When the short sellers are getting crushed (like anyone short on NVDA, AMD, AVGO, etc) they purposely publish scare tactics to get some retail selling to help them out a bit. This fellow calls out NVDA in particular, so likely has a short position on that one which is deep, deep in the red.

The comparison to dot com era is ridiculous anyways. Most of the companies in the dot com boom were only 1 to 3 years old, never made a profit, and the whole thing was a hype bubble. I was a tech consultant in silicon valley during that boom and money was flowing in quite unbelievable ways.

The booming stocks of today have decades of impressive profits, boatloads of cash, and zero debt. Their profits are growing faster than their market cap and they have a multi-year order backlog with margins well above 50%. Yes, some black swan event could derail this boom, but if you invest worrying about the black swans, you will not keep pace with inflation and never build wealth.

Best to just ignore the articles and posts from the chicken littles out there. It shows how desperate the hedge funds are to move the markets lower, to reduce their near unbearable losses.