| Teddyroo - 5/21/2023 00:42
Mr JonSCK
What’s your take on HRWW prices going forward ?
You were very vocal on here prior to and right at when Kansas wheat tour started.
First off I’m hard wired fundamentals.. so I like things like tours. I forgot how some will attack the Twitter posts.. and make fun of the guests on the tour..
remember that the quality council has invited buyers to learn about the crop prospects.. where will protein be? Will it be a good quality crop? Etc.. That conflicts with those of us.. not conspiracy theory level.. just where will NASS tweak crop size.. stocks.. etc.. I generally believe that NASS does a good job.. that their numbers are fairly guesstimated.. but that they can and will change.. I’m not in the camp that NASS is always out to stick it to one side or the other..
so with that said.. it’s been a very rough growing season for us.. even with wheat. A radar picture may show a storm over us.. and it may be raining.. but it’s been so dry.. that forecasts of 2” rains would maybe yield 0.2”.. barely enough to settle the dust.
personally we did not receive enough rain for good emergence until November.. after the growing season essentially ended. A good chunk.. maybe 30% of my wheat didn’t fully emerge until as late as February.. so.. this is a freaking disaster..
As is common.. once the tour started to document just how bad it is.. we got some rains.. should have scheduled the tour in March?
We’ve come from less than 50% of normal precip to maybe 80% during our wettest month.. as the tour came through here.. literally they (and I) walked fields on “the best day this crop has looked thus far.”
Even I am somewhat impressed with the turnaround.. however.. it’s still gonna be bad. One year I’ve tossed around is 1989.. it was similar to this point.. then we had to bring a bad crop in fighting mud. The weeds took that crop.. and it was a disaster.
after around 4” of moisture.. during heading.. barely boot tall wheat looks somewhat good going down the road at 60 mph.. however when you walk out in it.. it’s incredibly thin.. lol.. I’ve seen thicker corn stands in some cases.. originally I was hoping for.. 50.. 45.. 40.. 35.. 30.. 25.. 20.. 15.. 10.. bu wheat.. and now maybe I’m back up to.. 18.. to 25?!? Unless the weeds flush it taking ours back to 5..
I do believe we could raise a good heavy test weight.. good quality crop.. but “hey that field made 22 bu.. we can go brag at the coffee shop.” Overall I believe the elevators will be lucky to take in a third of a crop.. if that.
The unknown is the abandoned.. locally.. 15% of the crop has blown out.. a couple quarters have already been terminated.. and 50 miles to my south.. it’s estimated that over half will be terminated. You really can’t afford to hire it harvested on less than.. 10 bu.. and besides the insurance price is $8.79. So the incentive is to fail it and take the insurance $$$.
we haven’t had a crop below 200 million since 1963.. NASS implied 193ish.. and the tour came in under 180 ish.. (from memory.. wrong but close.. not gonna look it up). I posted below 150 before the start.. I’ll concede that it may be better.. but ain’t gonna be much.
As the prices have crashed.. more acres will be abandoned.. and in spite of my post above on corn.. buyers are gonna have to pry this crop loose.. we may bin anything of milling quality.. it’ll be a challenge because most every field.. cept maybe the irrigated will be a claim.. and getting that fairly measured.. easiest would be to haul to town.
okay.. overall.. it’s rained through Texas and southern Oklahoma.. they don’t normally raise big crops but the narrative will be.. “ain’t that bad..” till they get up to north central Oklahoma and Kansas.. “oh yes it is..”
The elevators are empty. They haven’t been this empty in 20 years.. and basis values will be jumpy imho. Good quality HRWW will trade at a premium.
I get why it sold off.. but think it will be interesting to watch the funds try to cover their Chicago shorts.. and how that impacts KC.
most of my neighbors are worried about seed wheat and then getting paid from the insurance.. I’ll be shocked if there’s a line longer than guys chatting about how bad things are at the elevators..
when you down to hoping dryland does 20 bu.. it’s pretty darn bad. For here.. abandonment will be historic. From here southwest.. I’d guess over 30%.. with large pockets.. over 67%.
worst yielding crop total production in the state in my life.
improved.. but I don’t see how it climbs out of the cellar. |
Why would farmers store Corn when the market is inverted?
