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| I remember it going on for awhile before covid hit and prices bottomed out. Idk when ink was put on paper but i remember the rhetoric of the mass media going back and forth between “we have a deal” and “we don’t have a deal”. I remember prices going up (some) and then down but mostly staying range bound.
In my opinion There seems to always be a story to be told to create uncertainty. Uncertainty about where the markets headed ultimately. Maybe it sells news stories or maybe it helps sell premiums idk.
The only things for certain (in my opinion obviously, really hate having to add this caveat) in the grain market are inflation is dwindling (honestly I haven’t seen prices rise around me ,not just farm inputs either, since about at least last summer I’d say) and La Niña is over and El Niño is coming
Those two things I believe have the largest impact on grain prices. The wheats there. Whether they ship it today or tomorrow the grains there and Russia has been effectively rationing the rest of the world to ensure there will be grain there. Not too mention the massive population cuts that we’ve seen from covid recently.
This will be a weird metaphor but,
It’s like the boxing matches that happened with Floyd mayweather. There’d be some new contender come along and they’d talk him up like he’s the greatest ever. They’d talk about how mayweather is old and maybe this is the one where he gets taken down. But mayweather always cleaned their clocks. It was a sure bet. Or about as sure as they get imo. Anyway the media had to talk the other guy up because otherwise everyone’s betting on Floyd and there’s no money to be won. Markets need people to take both sides of the bet. Or maybe that’s just how it works out.
So in conclusion the on again off again stories (such as trade or shipping agreement) are a ruse in my opinion.
Edited by Deltamudd 3/18/2023 18:35
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Black sea agreement
