The Kansas wheat tour starts next week so the story of how small the crop will be will come out.

I was discussing with my insurance agent today..  “What’s the incentive to go get 5 bu wheat to sell in a market less than the guarantee?”

”None.”

We know the mills are gonna be in a very bad way for physical bushels.. The market is gonna have to pry bushels away from failed.. adjusted.  

Are you going to pay a custom harvestor to go after 5 bushel wheat?

there’s not gonna be much to fight over.. let the bidding begin. 

Do we take out $11? 

edit to add.. so far the average yield on adjusted HRW Wheat is 4 bu to the acre in my area.. including several 0.0 yields.. from 0.0 to 8 bu.

We did get some rain tonight.. and hail.. but does that start the race against weeds taking the crop.. aka 1989? 

In 1989.. a field we sorta harvested.. made 3 bu.. 20 bushels in the mud holes.. which normally don’t get harvested.. and it wasn’t worth burning the diesel driving across the sand ridges.. nothing was going in the header anyway.. so we quit.. then it rained.. then it was a weed fest.

the whole industry needs to get together and prioritize this.. go patch what you can.. fail the rest.. maximize physical bushels.. or… do without.

personally I’m guessing the Kansas wheat crop.. 125 million to maybe 175..??  Less than we had in storage on March 1st.. or even probably today. 

The neighbor just applied glyphosate to an entire quarter.. it won’t be the last.

I can’t recall a year this bad in my life.