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Opinions wanted on cattle market...
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Markwright
Posted 4/6/2011 13:54 (#1711448 - in reply to #1710866)
Subject: RE: Dan, perhaps sell a June $132 call


New Mexico
looks like it's a $0.30 to $0.35 cwt pay to you.

( afore IS a net short then at $132 cwt )
( keep in mind you may have to tell your broker to do a "bid/ask" on this and WATCH the deal so he/she does not forget )

Sioux Falls Regional at Worthing SD is a par del point now...so you can deliver ( if push comes to shove ).

For some upside protection... buy an August call at say $135 will cost say $0.75 to $0.85 cwt.. range.

Futures this far behind cash is generally bullish cash.

Cattle been "playing" so to speak, Every OTHER week.
Since last week was hot...this week perhaps cooler...next likely hotter than hot again.

Therefore the afore June 132 will most likely be a June 135 to 137 next week, which you could then sell at the 30 to 40 cents etc..

Nother idea...if Your local auction area has a good market for those "2 way " cattle weighing say 11 to 12 and you can move em for 118 to 125....best thing ( cuts hassle, worry, risk etc ) is likely to move em now.

Not a market concern...but it costs ALOT of dough to put that last 200 lbs on.
Your feed efficiency really tanks then and you'll likely have plenty of corn in the mix on that back end ration.
( that backend gain is likely costing 115 to 125 cwt range as fed ).

Heck move em, better things to do in the Spring than mess with dam fat cattle anyway.
SAVE the afore feed and it goes about double to 3X farther on the lighter cattle your feeding etc..



Edited by Markwright 4/6/2011 14:14
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