SeniorCitizen - 9/19/2010 22:47

Just a few months ago, when the open interest in grain futures was lean & speculative interest had waned and combined with the almost refusal for soybean prices to collapse as so many predicted, mixed with the obvious psychology the world was in effect short-meaning few were taking coverage as all thought prices were doomed..I recalled a casual conversation of one weekend afternoon where I engaged in a relaxed conversation with some older fellows of the export trade & the 'old man' who owned the company at a resort in Wisconsin. This was just prior to the great grain trade & the old man, whose family history traced back into the days before the French Revolution & knew his shipping and grain history --the stories directed the conclusion events in the grain industry (and transportation) occasionally provide societies with a 'reality check.' Those old stories primarily dealt with secrecy and the fact if a country plans on some aggressive or defensive skirmish...before the armaments were arranged...food supplies were arranged. Translating to the fact the 'old timers' with routine contact with kings & dictators pretty much knew the future direction of events.

We don't have the crop harvested ...the prices are surging & the next 30 - 60 days are crucial. The Fed & all the other string pullers have been on their tip toes in regard to this economy & upcoming election & there rises a new set of very complex variables in regard to food. Plus, we are on the backside of the cycle where the expansion of meat supplies will come forth at a much higher price as we have endured the liquidation phase. There is a potential reality check ahead & it may not be all that pleasant for USA citizens. In addition, some of the folks leaving the stock & bond market are most likely taking some small interest in a potential commodity short fall.