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| I think the plan now is to get as much crop sold for $5 this year and next and be angry I didn't wait to sell it for $6. This year I have my highest average sales price ever - a little more discipline using a breakeven, but mostly more chances to sell over the break even.
Back in 2008 when prices took off my sales looked like this using the 'I can't believe it's still going up' sales strategy.
2008 Crop Sales 2/16/2008
CORN Total 48,949.91
5/15/2006 10000 $2.93
1/8/2007 5000 $3.29
10/11/2007 5000 $3.59
11/21/2007 5000 $4.00
2/27/2008 2500 $5.04
4/2/2008 1000 $5.48
5/8/2008 1000 $5.98
6/5/2008 1500 $6.03
6/12/2008 1000 $6.99
12/15/2008 16768 $3.16
The market stayed in the $5 range for much of spring into summer and peaked over $7 before running all the way back down by december where I sold a bunch and bought calls instead of storing (that didn't work out great either). It's pretty clear that the amount of bushels sold for the june 12th sale should have been bushels sold in december (probably a put).
So, how similar is this current behavior to 2008? Will this last past December and more or less do the short crop/long tail? Fundimentals seem to be driving this to some extent - will they continue to drive it or will the market return to it's previous behavior of doing whatever it wants? Should we be considering locking in some historically high prices because we won't seem them again for 2 years (unless you store for a long time)?
Thanks,
Pat | |
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C+8 S+24 W+10 Wow what a start of the week
