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weather
metmike - Sunday at 2:34 PM
Frost threat next weekend: N.Plains, Upper Midwest.
Huge upper high in NW. Canada and polar jet diving from high latitudes in N. Canada will drive Arctic air mass south late this week.
Cold air looks to pool in S. Canada with below freezing temps down to the US border.
How cold and how far south the cold penetrates will depend on several factors.
1. Strength of any cold fronts and push from surface highs behind them
2. How much Pacific energy tries to over run the cold or deflect the northern branch of the jet in Canada(keeping it from digging south)
3. Interaction and timing of above features. If they line up well, a strong cold push, big surface high, clear skies, calm winds, low dewpoints coinciding with an over night period, then frost chances are high. For every one of those factors missing, we can add several degrees to the low temp.
Saturday Morning looks like the coldest one right now.
Also, amount of corn and beans at risk is lower than usual for this time of year.
A frost on Sept 18 would be a bit early, especially if it gets into IA. More beans are at risk.
Last year, a frost this earlier would have been devastating. This year, the corn crop is over 2 weeks ahead of 2009 and beans a week ahead.
This is like having a frost near the end of Sept crop for an average advanced crop.......if we have a frost.
It's been very wet recently in ND, W. MN and parts of SD. This is also the area that will likely have the coldest air coming in late this week.
Areas with wet soils will often be several degrees warmer at night than they would be with dry soils, especially under ideal radiational cooling.
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