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New Mexico | long term uptick. Slow but SURE...kinda like the energizer bunny without the steroids.
As far as the paper markets reacting to the afore ....not alot of money velocity there so it's possible supposed basis ALL the way around may simply get narrower steadily.
On cash, it takes $6.85 to $ $7.45 national cash index price wheat to get real volume owned on HRW.
Corn, it takes $3.85 to $4.15 to own volumes of physical.
Beans, it takes $11.40 to $11.85.
Keep in mind 10 days ago:
4 govts/govt market groups all sent out spin that there's plenty of grain around for 010/011.
There's supposedly not much supply impact due to the EU drouth, not much impact on the Paki deal, and the floods in China mean nothing either, as far as global food stuff S/D.
Since it's impolite to call anyone a liar or crook ( especially elected govt folks ) let's just say the SAFE bet is to simply severely and sorely doubt ALL their words.
Fade em...their loading up on physical product.
Cattle...kinda interesting spin from the paper players and connected experts there too, last week.
DTN ran a clip that cattle and hogs should tank this week due to the effect of the upcoming holiday weekend, thus less meat demand then.
WOW....
Folks are going to have a holiday with their grills shut down?????
wonder what planet dtn was on to come up with their thesis on this?
Tech spin on cattle out of the SW market experts last week....deal is alot like 03, but if cattle do not break $100, the techies see a down back to the summer lows of 91 or even lower.
hmmmm, kinda interesting, since it's cash leading the board and we just went thru 2 more weeks of an extra 20,000 head per week pulled forward.
Fact is, $101 cash buys alot of cattle ( we've proven that time and time again in 010 ).
It also pulls supply forward, thus cattle gonna keep getting lighter.
Perhaps there's a signicicant number of paper cattle players who are still short from 2 weeks ago when cash moved up $5.
Pack is out of cattle again, into this week ( just like 2 weeks ago ).
In the SW it takes $102 to 103 to own em ( that's what it took last week, so the sw was out of it and the pack tried to fill up N ).
Sooner or later cattle get light enough from a harvest weight stand that cattle numbers available drop too ( btw, we're there now ).
Edited by Markwright 8/29/2010 13:24
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this weeks market
