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corn the new leader?
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Hayinhere
Posted 8/12/2010 23:53 (#1313080 - in reply to #1312852)
Subject: RE: corn the new leader? buckster


Central NE

Tc806,  charts don't tell the markets what to do.  yes they can influence speculators timing when to enter and exit the market, but we are in a (hot) weather market now partially driven by end users IMHO.   You may be right about the short term peak since harvest is starting, but I think the peak will manifest itself as a crappy basis, and not neccisarily a big price decline on the board.  I think USDA hedged their report to the downside, acknowledging tightening supplies, but in as small a way as possible. 

The 5 dollar corn thread above is interesting.  If you were an Ethanol plant, or a feeder, and had a chance to lock in some supply before it rises to unproffitable levels, would you?  What motive does a grower have to sell 2010 crop at the present time?  Most growers that forward contract have sold most of what they forward sell allready and don't know how this crop is going to finish.  The rally up to now has removed alot of resistance that comes from farmer-selling out of the way for further price escalation.IMO

Tommorrow afternoon around 4:00pm, put down your charts, head outside and walk all the way through a cornfield.  Commune with nature and inspect your corn.  When you get to the other side of the field let us know if you think prices should be heading down.

 



Edited by Hayinhere 8/13/2010 00:09
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