|
Mascoutah, Illinois | I really liked the price action on Friday in corn and soybeans after wheat finished limit down. It appears we have two seperate markets trading right now as someone alluded to earlier this week on NAT. Wheat by itself and corn and soybeans still trading in tandem.
I believe we get one more rally before August 20th which is ten trading days away. Keep in mind we have a USDA Report coming out this week and as we have seen in the past, rallies or sell-offs can happen rapidly. The tough question to be asking oneself is, do I sell some more in front of this report and I am comfortable enough with what I have contracted if the market heads "south?"
If I have a perfect market scenario this week, I would like to see December corn trade to somewhere between $4.38-$4.50 and November soybeans to $10.50-$10.60 in front of the USDA Report. At these price levels, I would pull the trigger again with another incremental sale. $4.50 has been top side resistance in December corn and $10.60 has been topside resistance in November soybeans. Technicians could use these resistance targets as a reason to take the markets down along with the earlier harvest compared to last year and a bigger than expected number from the USDA. It is no secret the vast majority know the crop is big (we all do) and this may be the time traders change sentiment and use it as bearish news to push grains lower.
If this market decides to take a "leg" down after this report, we will probably see the "bears" have control till at least the middle of November. If Tarafarms is right about the 170 number or above, the "bears" may have control longer than middle November.
| |
|
What I think will happen this week in corn and soybeans.
