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SC Iowa | I tend to follow local bean basis in Des Moines (two crush plants one ADM/one Cargill) and maybe in Council Bluffs....have actually seen basis erode vs. November futures.....currently at +30X in DM and could have locked in 30-50 cent stronger basis a month ago....granted spreads have done some things in that time period as well......we're in a time period where many crush plants are taking extended downtime...couple of weeks at a time....so it's not unusual to see bids improve as they buy the beans needed to get into the next shutdown, then back out of market for awhile...
Two things on export front.....we continue to see good demand out of US for late season beans....part of that is tied to faster shipment off PNW than South America.....and other thing is the strength of the Brazilian Real slowing down bean exports in general out of SA this season....
here is a link to a 10 year chart of the Real vs. the US dollar.....back in that time period when the Real was very cheap and it took 3+ Reals to the dollar---well, that is when the boom was on in Brazil agriculture....US farmers were selling $5-6 beans but the Brazilians were doing extremely well because of their cheaper currency......I heard Bill Gross from PIMCO talking about buying Brazilian bonds earlier this week or last and that is usually a sign of a good economy and strength in local currency....
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?symbol=%2f...
regards,
Ray J
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Ray Jenkins, I need some help from your crystal ball.
