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| Do you have a break even price figured - it can be just rough - inputs (seed, fert, herb, rent, fuel), loan payments, maybe some family living/sort of profit. Once you have that number marketing gets a tick easier - sell when it's over your break even point. The problem is we all want to hit the lottery and the odds of picking the high in commodities is not so different from winning the state lottery.
Many of us were sure the fundimentals of adequate to burdensome (wheat) supply would eventually weigh the market back down. DJM had corn pegged at $4.25 with a potential leg up, but I don't think he was counting on it and sold when he got close enough to his targets (I think I have that about right - correct me if I'm wrong djm). So lots of folks here that pay very close attention to market behavior (and do a better job than many pay for services), can't call the future. This Russian drought deal has been propping up this market, but now they have allegedly stopped a wheat shippment - now what? The gorilla(s) in the room are the funds - they just love volatility and will jump all over a market (remember $20 wheat). They have way more money than our whole market is worth and other investments are doing ok, but not very interesting - so to commodities they come. It also means once in rains in Moscow we drop like a rock.
I sold yesterday at 2 of my target prices above my break even and was quite happy - except I had to sell for Jan delivery and will be storing corn (more work, but it paid at the time). Now it looks like our fall price will hit $4 - probably today. I'm not sold up to my insured bushels, but it looks like it will be a good idea to look hard at more sales now than later. Maybe we will have another chance at $5 corn.
If you are above your break even try to sell some - perhaps break it up into 500 bushel sales and spread some sales out over the next 5 weeks (or how ever long the rally lasts). One thing to keep in mind is that the Russian wheat deal is more or less a surprise event (like Jimmy's embargo in the 70's) and while it will effect the market for a while the impact may be more front loaded and tail off as the news gets old. I wouldn't count on another similar event to spur prices further - we have a big crop coming on with adequate supplies. Even if we don't quite have a record crop, we are no where near in trouble.
hth,
Pat | |
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when to sell
