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| As I mentioned a day or so ago, the fundamentals from several directions in regard to several commodities has, and IS, changing. BUT, the question is: Is the change equal to the recent move in prices?
History repeats. I vividly recall many previous market bubbles but there is always something a little different about each which prevents making any bold statements about How high? or how Low?
The market is now in the phase which I describe as "the bull is out of the gate" & "hang on for a willd Up & Down ride."
Yesterday, funds reportedly purchased 75 million bushels of Chicago wheat. As a speculator (which I am), you cannot stand in front of this sort of action as a speculative seller (I am long)...naturally I expect, and I am sure do most others, some type of price reaction, or perhaps even a blow-off.
The complex variable in all of these markets IN ADDITION TO WEATHER is the expectation of another round of quantitative easing. Where can this mood take us? I have no idea other than in previous currency scares accompanied with a commodity in potential tighter supply, the gloves may come off...
Producers, again in my experience, must continue sensible common sense marketing-incremental sales.
Making the situation even more complex, if you are a market timer---bull markets can remain overbought on technical indicators beyond deep margin pockets--the so-called bulletins coming out of the FSU suggests 'they know' the extent of damage. Prior relationships in those areas suggest to me...:"they don't have a clue" ....I just posted a comment relative to some "ban wheat exports" news out of the Ukraine --
http://www.perspicuousrisk.com/
My routine newsletter is 3 days behind schedule due to my preparation of a supply-demand evaluation for an Asian entity....There are some not-so-subtle changes which will impact 2011-2013....(means a $$ fee) for the benefit of the acquisition of Dribble Bibs (for me) & a charity of which we favor but the preparation & verification process of all the details has kept me 1) from my aluminum can route 2) delayed the application of the second coat of Rustoleum on the van & 3) put me in a deadline mode. | |
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Risk Appetite
