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EC Nebraska | From your first link:
"Total exporter-held ending stocks have been relatively consistent over the last several years, not showing the same declining trend as China and India’s stocks. Exporter-held ending stocks are generally considered to be a relevant metric as these are the supplies available to the world market and are likely to have a more direct effect on global prices."
The export market is what matters for US domestic price, not global stocks. Particularly when so much of the global carryover is in China and may or may not exist and/or be consumed.
The bottom line, from both articles, is that the global export market is adequately supplied from sources other than the USA. Until that changes, US wheat prices don't have much of a story.
Indian stocks are declining (according to the first link), but India was on the verge of becoming a net wheat exporter. Their stocks can fall a ways before they have any need to be a significant wheat importer. | |
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Wheat
